Skip Navigation

Grid Operators Grapple With Sizzling Temperatures, Soaring Power Demand

June 15, 2022

by Paul Ciampoli
APPA News Director
June 15, 2022

Grid operators in parts of the U.S. this week have been grappling with soaring power demand resulting from extreme heat.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) declared a Maximum Generation Emergency Alert effective for June 15 for the MISO Balancing Authority Area. MISO noted that the reason for the event is because of forced generation outages, above normal temperatures and high congestion.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) reported having a record-breaking peak electric demand on Sunday, June 12, 2022, of 74,917 megawatts, breaking the previous all-time peak of 74,820 MW that occurred on Thursday, August 22, 2019.  

“Current weather and load forecasts predict record-setting hot weather across the state through this week. ERCOT expects sufficient generation to meet the high demand at this time,” the grid operator said on June 14.

The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and 153 local power companies across the region successfully met a record power demand for the month of June during an early season heat wave on Monday, June 13, TVA reported June 14.

At 6 p.m. ET, the power system was providing 31,311 MW at a region-wide average temperature of 94 degrees. The previous record for June was 31,098 MW on June 29, 2012.

Twenty-Three Individuals, Eight Utilities Win National Public Power Awards

June 14, 2022

by Paul Ciampoli
APPA News Director
June 14, 2022

Twenty-Three individuals and eight utilities were recognized for service to the American Public Power Association (APPA) and the public power industry during APPA’s National Conference in Nashville, Tennessee on June 14.

The individuals and utilities recognized at the ceremony were: 

Alex Radin Distinguished Service Award

This award is the highest award granted by the American Public Power Association. The award recognizes exceptional leadership and dedication to public power.

James D. Donovan Individual Achievement Award

This award recognizes people who have made substantial contributions to the electric utility industry, with a special commitment to public power. 

Alan H. Richardson Statesmanship Award

This award recognizes public power leaders who work to achieve consensus on national issues important to public power utilities.

Larry Hobart Seven Hats Award

This award recognizes managers of small utilities serving fewer than 2,500 meters. These managers have a very small staff and must assume multiple roles.

Harold Kramer-John Preston Personal Service Award 

This award recognizes individuals for their service to the American Public Power Association.

Spence Vanderlinden Public Official Award

This award recognizes elected or appointed local officials who have contributed to the goals of the American Public Power Association.

Robert E. Roundtree Rising Star Award

This award is a scholarship presented to future leaders in public power. The recipient receives a stipend to travel to an APPA conference or training program to advance their education and development in public power.

Mark Crisson Leadership and Managerial Excellence Award 

This award recognizes managers at a utility, joint action agency, or state or regional association who steer their organizations to new levels of excellence, lead by example, and inspire staff to do better.

E.F. Scattergood System Achievement Award

This award honors American Public Power Association member systems with outstanding accomplishments.

Sue Kelly Community Service Award

This award recognizes utilities for their “good neighbor” activities that demonstrate commitment to the local community.

Energy Innovator Award

APPA’s research program, Demonstration of Energy & Efficiency Developments (DEED), nurtures innovation in public power. Each year, the program recognizes innovative utility projects with this award.

New Resource Adequacy Modeling Tools Needed For The Evolving Grid, NRRI Says

June 14, 2022

by Peter Maloney
APPA News
June 14, 2022

Traditional resource adequacy tools are not sufficient to ensure reliability in a rapidly changing electric power system, according to a new report from the National Regulatory Research Institute (NRRI), the research arm of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC).

Power grids are evolving rapidly from a system served by dispatchable resources to a system that relies on variable energy resources (VERs) and duration-limited storage, the report noted. Those changes are making many of the tools power system planners relied on “obsolete,” according to the report, Resource Adequacy Modeling for a High Renewable Future.

In the past, electric system planners only needed to worry about unusually high loads or high forced outages, the report said. “Now, they must worry about unusually high loads during periods of unusually low renewable output and limited storage duration” that, coupled with more extreme weather, can compound risks and require “a fundamental rethinking of planning for low probability, high impact events,” the report said.

The NRRI report, like other recent reports, highlighted that weather is emerging as a fundamental driver of power system conditions and will require changes in resource adequacy planning to account for increasing uncertainty on both the supply and demand side of the equation.

The North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s 2022 Summer Reliability Assessment identified an “elevated or high risk” of energy shortfalls this summer because of predicted above-normal temperatures and drought conditions.

And earlier this year a paper by NARUC, the National Association of State Energy Officials and Converge Strategies recommended new approaches to estimating the value of resiliency in the face of changing grid conditions and weather patterns.

Updating reliability planning for a “new energy paradigm” will require taking into account meteorology, variable renewable energy generation, forced outages, and energy limited storage, the report said.

The report’s authors argue in favor of using a Monte Carlo simulation that is capable of factoring in multiple inputs and uncertainties while maintaining historical correlations. For example, “traditional models used average or typical time profiles of load and renewables while focusing on generator outages as the primary source of uncertainty, greatly underestimating the risk of load shedding,” they said.

The report also noted that traditional models for resource planning often fail to include weather data, climate impacts, behind-the-meter resources, transmission, or sophisticated data on energy storage availability.

The authors included another example of the failure of traditional resource adequacy modelling. They ask, “At the high end of renewable penetration, how much storage would be required to cover Dunkelflaute, the ‘dark doldrums,’ that occur in the winter when wind ceases to blow for several days?”

To ensure that resource adequacy models can provide valid risk assessments, the report recommended they should simulate random variables as weather dependent; benchmark simulations against historic data; model generator outages as weather driven; scale simulations to match future expectations, and include climate effects in simulations.

EPA Says It Will Reconsider Trump Administration’s Decision On Particulate Matter

June 14, 2022

by Paul Ciampoli
APPA News Director
June 14, 2022

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on June 10 announced that it will reconsider the Trump Administration’s decision to retain the particulate matter (PM) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

EPA is reconsidering the December 2020 decision “because available scientific evidence and technical information indicate that the current standards may not be adequate to protect public health and welfare, as required by the Clean Air Act,” it said in a news release.

Particulate matter includes fine particles, which are 2.5 micrometers in diameter and smaller. They can be emitted directly from a variety of sources, including vehicles, smokestacks, and fires. They also form when gases emitted by power plants, industrial processes, and gasoline and diesel engines react in the atmosphere.

Coarse particles, which have diameters between 2.5 and 10 micrometers, include road dust that is kicked up by traffic, some agricultural operations, construction and demolition operations, industrial processes, and biomass burning.

EPA has regulated particle pollution since 1971 and has revised the standards four times — in 1987, 1997, 2006 and 2012.

EPA’s 2020 policy assessment concluded that the scientific evidence and information support revising the level of the annual standard for the PM NAAQS to below the current level of 12 micrograms per cubic meter while retaining a 24-hour standard.

The agency received numerous petitions for reconsideration as well as lawsuits challenging the December 2020 final action.

EPA said that as part of its move to reconsider the decision to retain the particulate matter NAAQS, the agency will develop a supplement to a 2019 Final Integrated Science Assessment that will take into account the most up-to-date science, including new studies in the emerging area of COVID-related research.  

The supplement will be reviewed at a public meeting by the chartered Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC), supported by a particulate matter review panel of scientific experts on the health and welfare impacts of PM.

The CASAC and the PM panel will also review a revised policy assessment and formulate advice to the Administrator.

The public will have opportunities to comment on these documents during the CASAC review process, as well as to provide input during the rulemaking through the public comment process and public hearings.

EPA expects to issue a proposed rulemaking this summer and a final rule in Spring 2023.

For more information on the NAAQS review process and documents related to prior PM NAAQS reviews, visit https://www.epa.gov/naaqs/particulate-matter-pm-air-quality-standards.

In June 2020, APPA and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association submitted joint comments advocating for EPA to retain the annual PM 2.5 NAAQS.

Ditto Urges Members To Share Supply Chain Challenges, Details APPA Efforts To Address Issue

June 13, 2022

by Paul Ciampoli
APPA News Director
June 13, 2022

Joy Ditto, President and CEO of the American Public Power Association (APPA), on June 13 urged member utilities to share their supply chain challenges with APPA so that the trade group can relay details on these challenges to federal partners and discuss how critical burdens on the sector can be alleviated.

“Thanks to your responses to our surveys and other outreach, we already know that transformers are extremely constrained,” she said in her remarks at APPA’s National Conference in Nashville, Tenn.

Joy
APPA President and CEO Joy Ditto delivers her remarks at APPA’s National Conference in Nashville, Tennessee. 

APPA is proactively taking steps to address supply chain challenges.

“We have done several things from our end to help,” Ditto said, noting that APPA recently asked the Department of Energy for a temporary waiver from the 2016 transformer efficiency standard to help spur faster manufacturing processes.

In addition, APPA rolled out an additional feature to APPA’s eReliability Tracker that is available to all public power utilities and allows for voluntary equipment sharing by matching systems with the same distribution voltages.

“We are relaying to the federal government what the challenges are and working with manufacturers to better understand and” alleviate constraints, Ditto said.

“This conversation will become more formalized with a tiger team being formed between the electric sector and the Department of Energy, with transformer manufacturers and other manufacturers included as well.”

This tiger team is under the auspices of the Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council, led by the various electricity trades and select CEOs from the industry, including several from public power. 

“We have also sent letters to the congressional energy committees on the transformer constraint,” Ditto said.

Cyber Security

Meanwhile, APPA and the electric sector are keeping cybersecurity front and center in 2022, “as we have been for many years.”

She noted that public power utilities have the opportunity to engage in information sharing, cyber mutual aid and more.

“The Infrastructure Act includes $2 billion for cybersecurity and there is $250 million of that $2 billion earmarked for technical assistance and support specifically for municipal and rural utilities.”

Tax-Based Incentives

APPA also continues to fight for tax-based incentives for renewable energy, including wind and solar, to be expanded to allow for nonprofit electric utilities to receive comparable financial incentives in directly owning these projects.

There appears to be bipartisan support for extending such energy credits, including a refundable direct pay credit, she said.

Natural Gas

She pointed out that public power’s transition to cleaner forms of energy is challenged by the interdependencies inherent to the industry. “Unfortunately, sometimes we can’t work on challenges that stem from these dependencies until people see the true need.”

An example of this was last year’s Winter Storm Uri.

“APPA had outlined some issues with increased reliance on natural gas for electricity production back in 2010, but it wasn’t until the storm triggered some of the worst-case scenarios that people started to focus on some of the policy solutions we had previously put forth,” Ditto said.

“We’ve made some progress in this area, but we still need to work toward getting assurances in the gas market via policy-based solutions. Rising natural gas prices over the last several months are only exacerbated by infrastructure siting barriers and contradictory policies that delay permitting.”

Light Up Navajo

Public power utilities continue to work on connecting families to the grid through the Light Up Navajo initiative in partnership with the Navajo Tribal Utility Authority.

“Having visited the Navajo Nation for the kick-off of this year’s Light Up Navajo III event in April, I felt the gratitude for what our shared efforts could produce — how much of a difference electricity means to people’s lives shines through in the testimonials from the volunteer crews and the families that newly received power to their homes,” she said.

EIA Expects Natural Gas Spot Prices To Remain High Through Rest Of 2022

June 12, 2022

by Paul Ciampoli
APPA News Director
June 12, 2022

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting that U.S. natural gas spot prices will increase again in June and then remain high through the rest of 2022.

Natural gas spot prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana averaged $8.14 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in May 2022, and EIA expects the Henry Hub price to average $8.71/MMBtu this summer (June through August).

It expects U.S. natural gas prices to remain relatively high in 2022 because of lower-than-average natural gas inventories resulting from factors affecting both supply and demand.

Consumption of natural gas in the U.S. electric power sector has remained high despite high natural gas prices.

“We expect that consumption of natural gas in the U.S. electric power sector will average 0.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) more in 2022 than in 2021, even though we expect the Henry Hub price to be $3.49/MMBtu higher,” EIA said.

In the U.S. electric power sector, power plants have tended to consume more coal as natural gas prices increase. However, this fuel substitution has been relatively limited in recent months because of supply constraints in the coal market and historically low coal stockpiles, the agency noted.

In addition, EIA expects that U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will remain high during this summer, partly as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. So far this year, 75% of total U.S. LNG cargos have gone to Europe, compared with 34% in 2021. High international natural gas prices may also lead to more U.S. LNG exports.

EIA expects U.S. production of dry natural gas to increase in 2022, but not as much as demand. “We expect dry natural gas production will average 96.5 Bcf/d in 2022, which is 3.2% (or 3.0 Bcf/d) higher than the 2021 average.”

Because demand for natural gas has outpaced production, natural gas inventories have remained low. Natural gas inventories started the 2022 summer injection season (April through October) 17% below the five-year (2017–21) average. “We expect that natural gas storage levels will be 9% below the five-year average at the end of October, the beginning of this coming heating season.”

EIA forecasts that natural gas prices will fall in early 2023 because of more domestic natural gas production, less LNG export and domestic natural gas demand growth, and more natural gas placed in storage.

DOE Closes On $504.4 Mil Loan Guarantee For Hydrogen Production And Storage Facility

June 12, 2022

by Paul Ciampoli
APPA News Director
June 12, 2022

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on June 8 announced it closed on a $504.4 million loan guarantee to the Advanced Clean Energy Storage project in Utah, marking the first loan guarantee for a new renewable energy technology project from DOE’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) since 2014.

The loan guarantee will help finance construction of the largest clean hydrogen storage facility in the world, capable of providing long-term low-cost, seasonal energy storage, furthering grid stability, DOE said.

Earlier this year, LPO announced a conditional commitment for a loan guarantee for Advanced Clean Energy Storage.

The facility in Delta, Utah, will combine 220 megawatts of alkaline electrolysis with two massive 4.5-million-barrel salt caverns to store clean hydrogen.

Advanced Clean Energy Storage will capture excess renewable energy when it is most abundant, store it as hydrogen, then deploy it as fuel for the Intermountain Power Agency’s IPP Renewed Project — a hydrogen-capable gas turbine combined cycle power plant that intends to incrementally be fueled by 100% clean hydrogen by 2045.  

With the closing of this loan guarantee, LPO now has $2.5 billion in remaining loan guarantee authority for Innovative Clean Energy projects.

San Francisco PUC’s Community Choice Energy Program Signs Storage Contracts

June 11, 2022

by Paul Ciampoli
APPA News Director
June 11, 2022

The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission’s (SFPUC) community choice energy program, CleanPowerSF, has executed two new agreements to participate in long-duration energy storage through California Community Power, a group of 10 community choice aggregation programs that procure power for their residents, businesses, and municipalities.

The two projects — the Tumbleweed Project by REV Renewables, to be located in Kern County, California, and the Goal Line Project by Onward Energy, to be located in San Diego County, California –mark the first joint procurement effort that San Francisco is participating in with California Community Power.

San Francisco’s share of the Tumbleweed Project will provide approximately 11 megawatts (MW) of battery energy storage, while its portion of the Goal Line Project will provide 10 MW of energy storage capacity.

In total, the Tumbleweed Project will provide 69 MW of battery energy storage, and the Goal Line Project will provide 50 MW. 

In recent years, CleanPowerSF has been expanding its battery storage portfolio. Earlier this year, CleanPowerSF executed a contract to add battery storage to the Blythe IV solar project in Riverside County, which provides 62 MW to CleanPowerSF customers.

The Tumbleweed and Goal Line projects represent CleanPowerSF’s first long-duration battery storage contracts.

To date, CleanPowerSF has over 200 MW of battery storage under active contract.

California Community Power was established in February 2021 to leverage the combined buying power of community choice aggregators for energy supply, programs, and services. CleanPowerSF became a member in April 2021.

Other members include Valley Clean Energy, Sonoma Clean Power, Silicon Valley Clean Energy, San Jose Clean Energy, Redwood Coast Energy Authority, Peninsula Clean Energy, MCE, East Bay Community Energy, and Central Coast Community Energy.
  
CleanPowerSF began serving customers in 2016 with a mission to provide San Francisco residents and businesses with renewable electricity at competitive rates. Today, CleanPowerSF serves about 385,000 customer accounts in San Francisco and offers 50% and 100% renewable electricity service options. Over the past six years, CleanPowerSF has helped reduce greenhouse gas emissions from electricity use by 94% from 1990 levels.
  
Along with CleanPowerSF, the SFPUC operates Hetch Hetchy Power, which generates and delivers 100 percent greenhouse gas-free energy to more than 4,000 customer accounts, including municipal buildings and facilities, such as City Hall, San Francisco International Airport, schools, libraries and the Muni transit system.

Hetch Hetchy Power also provides electricity to some commercial and residential developments, including affordable housing sites. Collectively, the two systems meet over 70 percent of the electricity demand in San Francisco.

Biden Administration Proposes Minimum Standards Tied To National EV Charging Network

June 10, 2022

by Paul Ciampoli
APPA News Director
June 10, 2022

The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration on June 9 announced a notice of proposed rulemaking on proposed minimum standards and requirements for projects funded under the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) formula program.

“These minimum standards will help ensure our national EV charging network is user-friendly, reliable, and accessible to all Americans, and interoperable between different charging companies, with similar payment systems, pricing information, charging speeds, and more,” the Department of Transportation noted in a news release.

The proposed rule would establish the groundwork for states to build federally funded charging station projects across a national EV charging network.

The minimum standards are intended to ensure a unified network of chargers with similar payment systems, pricing information, charging speeds, and more.

The notice of proposed rulemaking notes that the standards and requirements proposed would apply to:

The American Public Power Association (APPA) will review the NOPR and solicit feedback from members.

The news follows the announcement earlier this year of nearly $5 billion that will be made available to states over the next five years under the new NEVI formula program, established by the infrastructure law, to build out a national EV charging network. 

The proposed requirements will help states as they develop their EV deployment plans in concert with the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, which was established by the infrastructure law and is providing direct technical assistance and support to help states with the $5 billion NEVI program.

Meanwhile, the Department of Energy (DOE), in coordination with the Department of Transportation, through the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, on June 6 announced the Federal Advisory Committee Act Electric Vehicle Working Group to make recommendations regarding the development, adoption, and integration of electric vehicles into America’s transportation and energy systems.

The advisory group will consist of 25 representatives, federal government employees and special Government employees.

The group will compile reports related to the adoption of EVs for the Joint Office, determine how the Biden Administration will ensure the sustainable integration of electric vehicles into the electric grid, prepare the workforce for more electric vehicles and maintain global competitiveness in electric transportation infrastructure and technology, according to the Department of Transportation.

A White House fact sheet noted that the joint office announced a partnership to support EV charging with APPA, Edison Electric Institute, and National Rural Electric Cooperative Association to inform electric system investments and support state planning.

The infrastructure law also provides $2.5 billion in competitive grants to support community and corridor charging, improve local air quality, and increase EV charging access in underserved and overburdened communities.  

The Department of Transportation will open applications for this program later this year.

Rising Natural Gas Prices Fuel Concerns Of Higher Electric Prices Through Summer

June 8, 2022

by Peter Maloney
APPA News
June 8, 2022

Soaring natural gas prices ahead of the summer cooling season are fueling growing concerns in the electric power industry.

“Natural gas power generation sets the marginal price of wholesale power across the country, which means that as natural gas prices increase, so will the price of electricity,” Paul Cicio, president and CEO of Industrial Energy Consumers of America, said via email. Wholesale power prices have already increased over 200 percent regionally, he noted.

The concern is great enough that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) last month in its 2022 summer assessment warned that expectations of a hotter than average summer could increase electric demand, creating demand for natural gas that is expected to outpace supply growth. Futures prices at major electricity trading hubs are already between 77 percent and 233 percent higher than they were last year, FERC said.

Those factors are already evident in the gas market. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price hit $9.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on May 24, about three times higher than the price a year ago. The cost of purchasing gas in advance is also on the rise. The June 2022 NYMEX contract increased 60.3 cents, from $8.368/MMBtu on May 18 to $8.971/MMBtu on May 24, according to the Energy Information Administration reported (EIA).

For over a decade, prices and emission levels lower than other fossil fuels has made natural gas the leading power generation fuel. Natural gas, at 38 percent, was the leading power generation fuel in 2021, followed by coal with about 22% of the generation market, according to EIA data.

When natural gas prices were low because of a flood of gas from fracking, utilities and their customers benefited from low electricity prices. With gas prices on the rise, customers are beginning to feel the pain. EIA data show across the board increases in electricity prices in all sectors and all regions of the country.

In the PJM Interconnection, the real-time load-weighted average locational marginal price increased 75.5 percent in the first three months of the year compared with the first three months of 2021, to $54.13 per megawatt hour (MWh) from $30.84/MWh, the highest first quarter price since the polar vortex of 2014, according to the State of the Market Report from Monitoring Analytics, the independent monitor for the PJM. Forty-nine percent of the increase was a direct result of higher fuel and emission costs, particularly higher natural gas prices, the report said, noting that generation from coal-fired plants decreased 3.1 percent while generation from natural gas-fired plants increased 6.9 percent from first-quarter 2021 to first-quarter 2022.

The last quarter also marked the highest natural gas and locational marginal prices since 2014 for ISO New England. Total estimated electricity wholesale market costs this winter were $4.28 billion, up 85 percent from $2.32 billion in the winter of 2021, while natural gas prices averaged $14.41/MMBtu this winter, up 147 percent compared with $5.82/MMBtu last winter, according to the ISO’s Winter 2022 Quarterly Markets Report.

Florida, which of all the states is the most dependent on natural gas for power generation, provides another example of how vulnerable utilities can be to rising prices.

“We are on the bleeding edge of price increases,” Jacob Williams, general manager and CEO of Florida Municipal Power Agency (FMPA), said.

“Florida is unique,” said Williams. In addition to its dependence on natural gas, there is zero wind power and only two percent solar power. Solar power is slated to go up to 10 percent in the Sunshine State, but it is not meaningful in terms of reliable capacity because frequent summer rain storms obscure the sun, Williams said.

“In the past, coal provided a natural ceiling on gas prices,” Williams said. Operators could switch between gas plants and coal plants depending on price, but coal prices have also risen dramatically.

Central Appalachian coal has more than doubled over the past year. In addition, coal producers are having trouble meeting demand and stockpiles at power plants have fallen to historically low levels.

Florida also has one of the highest percentages of older residents, many of whom are on fixed incomes. About 30 percent of Floridians spend about 10 percent of their after-tax income on their electric bill, said Williams.

FMPA, which has 31 member cities throughout the state, serves about 12 percent of the state’s 21 million people. About 80 percent of its generation fleet is powered by natural gas, and gas prices have tripled in the last year. That has pushed wholesale power prices up to $110 per MWh from $70/MWh, a 30 percent year-over-year increase, Williams said. “It has been a more significant cost increase than anyone had planned on.”

“While not predicting it, I would not be surprised if gas prices were $12/MMBtu,” Williams said. “There does not seem to be a price ceiling until $20/MMBtu or more.”

Upward Pressures on Natural Gas

Natural gas prices began their upward trend early in 2021 when a winter storm in Texas and Oklahoma caused a spike in prices in February. Prices continued to rise through October as economic recovery contributed to growth in gas demand, which outpaced supply, even though gas production in 2021 reached an annual high of 2.97 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), surpassing the previous high of 2.95 Bcf/d set in 2019, according to the EIA.

Cold weather this winter that extended into late spring added to upward pressure on gas prices, which led to below normal injections of gas into storage for the coming heating season as gas already in storage was drawn down to meet winter heating demand. “Injections are just now starting to reach normal,” David Givens, head of natural gas and power services for North America at Argus Media, said.

But that is just one element in a larger picture. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports also rose to record levels in 2021. South Korea and China were the top destinations for U.S. exports, but there was also strong demand from Europe, driven by the relatively low price of U.S. natural gas. “Europe will take all the gas we can make,” Givens said.

With European sanctions against Russian energy imports to protest Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, demand for exports is likely to go even higher.

U.S. export capability does have limits, which could act as a temporary limit on LNG-driven price increases, but new LNG facilities are already in the works. A new facility just went online in Louisiana, and “there are many LNG terminals in the works for 2024 and 2025,” Givens said.

Gas production increased last year, but demand has increased even more, Cicio said. If not for LNG exports, “U.S. natural gas prices would be about $3.50/MMBtu.” Because production is not rising fast enough, Cicio estimated that gas prices could rise to over $10/MMBtu, at which point gas would no longer be economic to export, he said.

Givens does not see a ceiling on export driven prices. “Europe and Asia have bought LNG at $30 in the past,” he said.

Even if gas production increases, other constraints are putting upward pressure on prices. Problems building new pipelines put limits on getting gas out of the field and into the market. “In some respects, that is a regional problem,” Cicio said.

There are abundant supplies of shale gas in the Appalachian Basin, but “the entire East Coast from South Carolina to New York is short pipeline capacity,” Cicio said.

Proposed gas pipelines into New York and in New England have consistently met challenges or been struck down. In February, a permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline project, designed to move gas from northern West Virginia to coastal Virginia, was vacated by a federal court. In July 2020, the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, which would have moved gas from West Virginia to Virginia and North Carolina, was cancelled after years of litigation and cost increases.

Shortly after he took office, President Joe Biden suspended new oil and gas leases on federal lands, most of which are in the West. The moratorium was blocked by a federal judge in June. In April, faced with rising inflation and energy prices, Biden ended the moratorium.

“The refusal to grant new leases is not a major factor in rising gas prices,” said Givens. Instead, he emphasizes near- and medium-term fundamentals such as rising demand for electric power and LNG.

Looking for Relief

The current shape of the forward curve could hold the prospect of some relief for utilities over the next couple of years. For the balance of 2022, the forward curve at Henry Hub is $8.12/MMBtu. For 2023, it is $5.72/MMBtu, and for 2024, it is $4.56/MMBtu.

The big question is whether producers will ramp up production. With the forward curve declining over time – backwardation in industry terms – “it is speculative for them to commit capital for drilling,” Givens said.

After a roughly 10-year tidal wave of shale gas that depressed commodity and stock prices, “producers are finally in the driver’s seat,” Givens said. They “have free cash flow, and they are turning it into dividends and giving it to shareholders. That is their primary goal now.”

On a practical basis, that means during this transition, utilities should have a scenario that plans for gas to be $5 to $10 for the medium term, Givens said.

Faced with the politically untenable prospect of passing on large price increases to customers, utilities are looking for options. In the past, some utilities had been wary of locking in a gas price by hedging either because they became accustomed to low prices or they were burned by locking in prices only to see them drop even further.

Williams says FMPA has already done all “the blocking and tackling” it can do to get prices down. It has taken $30 million a year out of its budget by pre-paying for natural gas to reduce prices, selling excess power from an under used power plant, having its plants operate at high levels of availability, and refinancing bonds.

Now, FMPA and its members are looking at hedging their gas purchases to lock in prices before they rise even further. Some members are acquiring gas for next year, said Williams.

If they can lock in a price of $85/MWh, it isn’t $70/MWh, but “it is a lot less than $110/MWh,” he said.

Williams also favors lobbying Congress and the president to invoke the War Powers Act to expedite the approval of new leases that could potentially increase gas production and ease upward price pressures.

Minnesota public power utility New Ulm Public Utilities has already hedged its supplies for 2022. The hedge locked in a price of $2.77/MMBtu for about a third or half of the utility’s summer natural gas load, “not something we typically do,” Kris Manderfeld, director of the Minnesota public power utility, said.

That hedge only covers the utility’s gas business. On the electric power side, New Ulm has about nine years left in a 20-year, 180-megawatt (MW) contract with Heartland Consumers Power District. The contract covers about 50 percent of New Ulm’s electric load. The utility meets the rest of electric demand with purchases from the Midcontinent ISO. Those prices have been higher than last year, said Manderfeld.

Typically, New Ulm wants its baseload needs covered by contract and uses MISO purchases for load following, Manderfeld said. Otherwise, the utility is urging customers to conserve energy.

“There does not appear to be a cap on gas prices,” Manderfeld said. “People are still paying the price, even though there is nothing out of the normal. Supply is where it needs to be. Our consultants say the only thing driving up prices are fear and uncertainty.”

“We will keep trying to do what we can for our customer, to keep the prices competitive,” Manderfeld said.